The News:
Study: Species math wrong
GREATER DANGER
By Steve Graff The Denver Post
Article Last Updated: 07/03/2008 02:02:44 AM MDT
Species already listed as endangered may be racing toward extinction 100 times faster than originally thought, according to a new study led by the University of Colorado at Boulder.
Author Brett Melbourne says today's extinction-risk models have drastically underestimated the speed at which endangered species will perish.
"It's a mathematical misdiagnosis," said Melbourne, an assistant professor in the ecology and evolutionary biology department at CU-Boulder.
According to the study, current extinction models factor in only random, unavoidable acts — for instance, an animal being run over by a car — and external, random events, such as climate change or weather impacts that can affect birth and death rates.
Melbourne says those calculations leave out important factors: the number of males versus females, and size and behavioral variations.
The study, published today in the journal Nature, immediately drew the interest of conservationists nationwide.
"I think what they have done is provide a technical, important fix to help us build a better mathematical model for small populations," said Stuart Pimm, a conservation ecologist. Read on...
The Research:
Read the research behind this story in the journal Nature.
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